Trump Throws Ukraine Under the Bus

What has put Volodymyr Zelensky in the tightest of spots in almost four years of war is karma. Donald Trump merely chose his moment well, with Vladimir Putin’s blessings. The sweeping corruption scandal that has ensnared the Ukrainian president’s closest ministers and associates will cost him the election which—according to the leaked terms of the peace deal worked out in Miami between real estate developer-turned-presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, longstanding ally of Vladimir Putin and chief of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund—must be held within 100 days of a ceasefire. There is no way Zelensky can salvage his political future once the war is over.

The Trump administration knew only too well that it could take the easiest way out, which was to side with the stronger party and likely victor if and when the conflict ended. That’s why there is no surprise in the fact that the peace deal, which Ukraine must now respond to by the middle of next week, is basically a resurrection of the plot worked out in Alaska between the US and Russian presidents, which had seen worried European leaders flying in to Washington to secure assurances for themselves.

If that looked pathetic then, it was the epitome of poise compared to Zelensky’s predicament as he addressed the nation on Friday.

Zelensky said Ukraine had to choose between losing its dignity and losing an important ally. Not losing its dignity was the reason Ukraine chose to defend itself and it surprised the world with its resilience, improvisation, and chutzpah. Losing territory was not the reason it has sacrificed so much. Joining NATO was enshrined in its constitution. Still, it might have accepted a ceasefire line on the ground along current positions given the imperative of peace. But to give up territory it still controls?

In 2022, only 10 per cent of Ukrainians supported a negotiated settlement. Today, 74 per cent of them want peace, right now, according to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. If that makes Zelensky’s hand weaker, he will still be punished for giving up territory, the ultimate non-negotiable of the Ukrainian position. Trump is making Ukraine give up not only Donetsk, including the fortress cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and Luhansk in full, with parts still in Kyiv’s control, but also all land on which Russian troops are present. The US will recognise these and Crimea as de facto Russian territory.

It is the incentives for Russia that will hurt Kyiv and Europe the most, with perhaps the exceptions of Viktor Orbán and ‘Eurorealist’ Giorgia Meloni. For the leaders standing behind Zelensky most steadfastly—Keir Starmer, battling a leadership challenge at home; Emmanuel Macron, long abandoned by his self-proclaimed aura; Friedrich Merz, who started off with a self-goal—Russia is being rewarded for bad behaviour. There is no other way to interpret the plan to rehabilitate Moscow in G8, global markets, and the community of Western nations. True, $100 billion will be used from Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, but only under American supervision, with half the profits to be taken by the US. (Now when did we see that last?)

Along with the easing of sanctions, Russia will be brought into science and technology research, including collaboration on AI and data centres, rare earth mining and energy pacts, etc. A separate fund would be set up for joint US-Russia ventures. Putin has little reason to disagree with the plans since he gets all he wanted and more. And he knows Ukraine has little or no room for manoeuvre both on the ground and diplomatically. But knowing he is almost there, Putin will hold off a while yet, to raise his price and drive home the fact that he has won. Kyiv can still propose, but it’s doubtful Trump will listen. Zelensky was finished when Trump and Vice President JD Vance ambushed him in the Oval Office in February. Today, he has to surrender land to keep Washington supposedly on his side. And that too is not helping.

There are, of course, security guarantees for Ukraine should Russia invade again. But these don’t seem to venture beyond logistical and intelligence support. It’s highly unlikely America would put boots on the ground to defend the country. Yet the Kremlin is unhappy about a NATO Article 5-like plan to interpret a future Russian attack as an attack on the transatlantic community, possibly triggering a combined military response. But the wording is vague and it will bring little cheer to Kyiv or Brussels.

So, with the Donbas gone, and Crimea lost irretrievably, what does Ukraine get back? Perhaps the thousands of Ukrainian children abducted and taken to Russia? A family rehabilitation programme is on the cards, but then Russia has to acknowledge wrongdoing for that to go anywhere. Ukraine can join the European Union, leaving its false teeth back home in Kyiv.

Perhaps Donald Trump will fulfil his ambition of bringing peace to the end of continental Europe. It’s still unlikely the Nobel committee in Oslo will be very impressed by the manner in which that peace is likely to come about. In a year’s time, Trump will be a lame duck president. It’s not for nothing Republicans in Congress are taking the first steps in looking beyond him already, knowing they will go down in the mid-terms if they don’t get lifeboats. And yes, Trump’s Nobel is still in Putin’s hands.