The Women Factor

DMK is getting a run for its money in the Tamil Nadu Assembly election with new entrant Vijay drawing crowds comprising large numbers of women. The superstar phenomenon is not new in the state’s politics but Vijay is different from predecessors like MG Ramachandran (MGR) or J Jayalalithaa who were active in politics before becoming supremos. Also, though Vijay’s entry has made electoral predictions difficult, his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) lacks the organisation required for a polling booth-level presence. While he can mobilise resources, matching DMK’s campaign purse is not easy.

DMK is not taking the Vijay factor lightly even though the votes he is likely to draw will cut both ways as a section of AIADMK supporters are also likely to gravitate towards TVK. The key factor, feel political observers, is how women voters react to the actor’s campaign. They turn out in large numbers in the state and are most likely to exercise their franchise. The conventional thinking is that women voters are influenced by welfare schemes and direct payouts. For one, this might ignore considerations such as law and order that mean a lot to women as also livelihoods and economic prospects that matter with most voters irrespective of gender. In the case of Tamil Nadu, Vijay has projected himself as a fresh face and a crusader against corruption and he might persuade some voters to regard him as a better alternative to DMK than AIADMK.

Expat Watch

The government is monitoring the flow of Indian nationals returning from the Gulf in the wake of the Iran war to see if the current trickle shows signs of becoming a torrent. Apart from flights arriving from the war-hit region, a dozen railway stations near migrant hubs in Kerala are being monitored to track returnees. The assessment is that qualified professionals in the oil and gas industry and others with higher-order skills are likely to wait it out as they will be required to restore damaged infrastructure. Lowerwage workers are also currently hunkering down but it is not clear how long they can do so as salaries could be either reduced or suspended.

Covid Lessons

Senior officials in the Union government point to Covid lessons helping frame a nimble response to the supply disruptions due to the Iran war. The need to move vaccines and other materials like masks and PPE suits that were in short supply led to a ‘just-in-time’ strategy that needed careful monitoring of logistics. The thinking can be seen in decisions like prioritising domestic cooking gas to halt panic booking and hoarding followed by an easing of rules to redirect feedstock to petro-chemical industries to keep them going. The arrival of ships with oil and gas from the Gulf and elsewhere as well as domestic production are key factors.

Assam Miss

Every incumbent government is vulnerable and it is up to the Opposition to make the best of it. In the weeks leading up the election in Assam where BJP is seeking a third successive mandate, Congress seems to have missed out on a few chances. Although it has no alliance with Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, some understanding would have helped Congress’ prospects. Ajmal’s partnership with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM can hurt Congress. Besides, the alliance with Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal took time to seal and its utility is doubtful.

Twenty20 Is A Hit

BJP’s decision to ally with the Twenty20 party in Kerala could prove a successful experiment. The party founded by the head of the Kitex group, Sabu Jacob, is contesting 12 seats as part of NDA and its candidates are drawing a positive response. The party’s nominees are successful professionals and with the backing of an established political alliance are being received positively. The final tally remains to be seen but Twenty20—like the cricket format—might end up with a decent strike rate.

Padma for Living Bridges

This column has previously featured the living tree-root bridges of Meghalaya and the unique practice received recognition by way of Hally War, a 69-year-old farmer from the state, being awarded the Padma Shri this year for his efforts to cultivate and preserve the tradition. The living bridges are strong and functional; they also last a very long time and are environmentally friendly. War has been working with Khasi bio-engineering techniques for decades and the Padma award will increase awareness about this homegrown craft.

Party Spoilers

The row over cross-voting and abstentions of Congress MLAs during the recent Rajya Sabha elections refuses to die down even as the party has written to the Election Commission protesting against alleged malpractices. The real issue, feel party leaders, is lack of organisational supervision of state units and the resultant unresolved factional equations. Some state leaders call the shots and do not take smaller factions along and these fissures regularly come to the surface and embarrass the party’s Rajya Sabha nominees.