The General’s Jackpot

WE HAVE IT on the authority of US President Donald Trump that our neighbour, Pakistan, is about to become very, very rich. Trump claims the country is sitting on a massive bed of black gold. And how does he know? Because Pakistan’s self-appointed Field Marshal Asim Munir told him so a few weeks ago. Trump further disclosed that Munir assured him Pakistan will award drilling contracts to American oil majors.

The timing of Munir’s grand oil claim is fuelling debate in strategic and economic circles. Experts point out that unlike Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Venezuela, Pakistan has never been synonymous with oil exploration. On the contrary, it remains heavily dependent on energy imports. This imposes a crippling burden on its fragile economy. If oil were truly its salvation, one would expect Islamabad to have pursued this lifeline years ago. The reality, however, is grim: Pakistan’s hydrocarbon output has been dwindling, and its record on oil and gas exploration is not just patchy but downright uninspiring. While there have been sporadic reports of potential reserves over the years, these have remained inconclusive.

But Trump clearly is not one of the sceptics. He has gone on record that “maybe” Pakistan will be “selling oil to India someday.” But let the truth not come in the way of an entertaining Trumpian romp. Let us suspend belief for a moment and ask the question: What if Pakistan were to really strike it big by discovering subterranean wells bursting with millions upon millions of barrels of oil? Would the discovery be the magic fix that pulls Pakistan back from the brink of terminal dysfunction?

Unlikely. Look around. Pakistan’s economic benefactors and cultural exemplars in the Gulf have been lucky to discover this elusive elixir that has powered much of the 20th century. But where has it got them? Yes, they are undeservedly rich but the Gulf nations are also a version of totalitarian slave states. Money has bought glitzy skylines, but each is also a living museum to cruelty. Several Arab states are thriving on the toil of a virtually indentured migrant labour living in pitiable conditions in numerous camps under the unwavering watch of a brutish state police. Women are no better off. The political system is closed; independent media is not even practised, let alone contemplated. In short, this oil-soaked authoritarianism has worked to entrench a privileged and self-perpetuating elite that enjoys little legitimacy.

The comparison with Pakistan couldn’t be more striking. Without the oil jackpot, Pakistan mirrors these Arab states in its reliance on tribalistic patronage networks, authoritarian impulses, and the suppression of both pluralism and dissent. Instead of hydrocarbons, it could be said that Pakistan’s ‘resource’ has been geostrategic rent-seeking. Leveraging its location to extract aid and investment from key global players. Pakistan’s ruling elite is its army. Its stranglehold on every stream of activity— political, economic and even legislative— is total and unshakeable. To top it all, this military-dominated framework when allied to political Islam fuels an odious obscurantism, hatred and disrespect for civility within and without. Just like in the Arab world, Pakistan’s dependency on its geography, army and religion has bred entitlement and not reform.

The discovery of oil will only exacerbate Pakistan’s dysfunction. Rather than reforming taxation, governance, or industry, Islamabad would lean even more heavily on this primordial resource. Patronage politics would balloon, corruption would metastasise, and accountability would vanish. Pakistan may find itself under attack from within as people might finally challenge the inequity. In all likelihood, petro-dollars will embolden the already dominant military to double down on not only repression at home but also cross-border adventurism. South Asia could plunge into a bubbling cauldron of antagonisms. Some that may even pose an existential threat to Pakistan itself. The discovery of oil may not be a lifeline for Pakistan but a curse.

crude oilDonald TrumpField Marshal Asim MunirPakistan economyresources