Stringent Restrictions

FOR THE PAST two decades, in response to the sensitivities of those who are detached from the excitement of choosing popular repre­sentatives, the Election Commission has taken many steps to curb the fun and frolic associated with elections. At one time, at least till the exceptionally noisy election of 1991, campaigning used to continue till the early hours of the morning. The 10 PM restriction on public campaigning and the use of loudspeakers was a relatively new phenomenon and was introduced at the behest of an imperious election commissioner who, in my view, hated the carnival associated with democracy.

The stringent restrictions on how to ensure elections were sanitised beyond recognition were heartily endorsed by two classes of people. The first was the upper echelons of the bureaucracy that had been so accustomed to being kicked around by uncouth politicians that they loved the six weeks or so when they could tell the netas where exactly to get off. The second category of killjoys were the influential non-voting classes that have loathed democracy, except when it came to their own lifestyles and livelihood issues. They found elections to be an irritant and wanted to curb the political mobilisation associated with voting. They would have been comfortable with elections in the West where entire campaigns were conducted on TV, far away from the residential localities.

Let me confess that I love elections—not merely the excitement of counting day but also the carnival-like atmosphere that infects India in the weeks of the campaign. The songs, the slogans, the tinpot orators at street-corner meetings and, of course, the bouts of ill temper—these are features of Indian democracy and the way political parties manage to get their message across. And, have no doubts, the competitive message of the parties are successfully disseminated. If you analyse the results closely, it will be apparent that though regional factors are at play, the direction of the swing in favour or against a dominant army is invariably the same.

There are some media commentators who are approaching the General Election of 2024 in a mood of scepticism. According to them, India’s democracy has been jeopardised because the ruling BJP has created a situation whereby the opposition appears to have abandoned the different battlefields even before the commencement of hostilities. They point to the fact that the much-trumpeted I.N.D.I.A. bloc has failed spectacularly to get its act together. Moreover, many of the leading lights of Congress have crossed the floor and have associated themselves with BJP.

It is always difficult to gauge the extent to which the techniques of psychological warfare affect people’s voting intentions. What can be said with a measure of certitude is that by and large, people like backing winners. That being the case, BJP has very successfully conveyed the impression that the victory of Narendra Modi for the third consecutive term is a done deal. Amit Shah, a person I regard as India’s most adept poll manager, has already put a figure to the victory margin. According to him—and repeated by the prime minister—BJP will cross 370 seats on its own and the tally of NDA will touch 400 seats. If that happens, it will be a veritable saffron wave. The important things is that BJP doesn’t merely set a target, it ensures that this is bludgeoned into the popular consciousness, leaving its opponents in a state of disorientation.

To cite an example, BJP recently organised a massive National Convention (previously these used to be called Maha Adhiveshan) of nearly 11,000 of its leaders and activists from across India at the newly built Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi. It wasn’t a purposeful political meeting where strategy was formulated. Given its gigantic size, it was a mass rally aimed at wowing the faithful on two counts. First, to impress upon the sheer scale of BJP, particularly its reach across India. I have attended many BJP conventions since the mid- 1980s, but never before have I seen the wide range of representation— particularly from the northeastern states and southern India—as I saw in Delhi recently. The delegates all returned home convinced that they are part of an all-India movement led by the prime minister. Secondly, all the speeches by the top leadership of the party drove home the inevitability of the Modi re-election by a wide margin. This victory would be due to a combination of what has been successfully accomplished over the past decade and what will be achieved in the form of Viksit Bharat by 2047.

It is always wrong to predict the final outcome in an election, but if BJP can overcome over-confidence, which has the habit of depressing the voter turnout, and ensure that the selection of candidates meets popular expectations, 2024 is heading for a one-sided conclusion. The opposition doesn’t even seem to be trying very hard.

About The Author

Swapan Dasgupta

Swapan Dasgupta is India's foremost conservative columnist. He is the author of Awakening Bharat Mata

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