Pro-Separatist Rhetoric

Amid a sharply worded and polarising electoral battle in Jammu & Kashmir, National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah stirred a controversy when he said no useful purpose was served by the hanging of 2001 Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, leading to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh asking whether the separatist should have been garlanded for his role in the outrage. The turn in Abdullah’s election rhetoric might have something to do with his recent loss in the Lok Sabha polls to Sheikh Abdul Rashid (Engineer Rashid), a Kashmiri separatist serving a jail sentence. The decision of former members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami to hold a rally and reports that it was well attended might further encourage pro-separatist overtones in Abdullah’s campaign as NC considers the appeal of hardline positions in Kashmir Valley. NC’s partner Congress has refused to comment, with its leaders saying the party is not bound to respond to everything. Yet, it was the Congress-led UPA 2 that had moved swiftly to carry out the death sentence pronounced on Guru once his mercy petition was rejected by the president. The Manmohan Singh government had correctly anticipated that some activist lawyers were planning to move the Supreme Court to prevent the hanging from being carried out. The death sentence was executed in the early hours of February 9, 2013 in total secrecy. Now that NC is looking to outdo separatist rivals, including Jamaat-backed independents, Congress is in a difficult spot. The party is unable to condemn Abdullah’s comment and is at sea in responding to BJP’s questions about its silence. BJP hopes to corner Congress in the Jammu region where NC’s separatist talk and promises to ‘revive’ Article 370 are unlikely to impress voters. Repeating its strong performance in the Jammu region which has 43 seats post-delimitation—reducing the disparity with the Valley—is key to BJP’s hopes of being part of a government. In the 2014 Assembly election, a near sweep of Jammu had helped BJP reach a tally of 25. This time round, it needs to ensure Congress does not get a hold in the region as the contenders battle to emerge with the highest number of seats even if a clear majority is elusive for all parties.

Congress’ AAP Dilemma

Irrespective of whether Congress and AAP succeed in reaching a seat-sharing agreement in Haryana, the intent to seal a pact is serious on both sides. It works to AAP’s advantage to have an alliance as its prospects of winning seats improve and the party could establish a foothold in the state. Success has eluded AAP in Haryana despite Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal hailing from Bhiwani. On the other hand, Congress might have less to gain. AAP’s numbers might become an essential prop for the government if the alliance wins, making Congress dependent on its ally. Then again, AAP’s candidates will be fielded at the cost of Congress hopefuls who can prove to be a thorn in the flesh. Lastly, Kejriwal’s image has suffered a blow after the Delhi government got embroiled in cases relating to alleged corruption in the state excise policy and there is little evidence to suggest any public sympathy for the leader. Rather the public mood, by most indications, remains sternly against corruption in high places and voters are not easily impressed by claims of innocence. The decision of the Congress unit in Punjab not to ally with AAP was borne out by the Lok Sabha results that showed a sharp decline in the ruling party’s popularity. Unlike in states like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu where the I.N.D.I.A. bloc clicked, the Congress-AAP combine could not prevent BJP from winning all of Delhi’s seven parliamentary seats. The dilemma for Congress is that it does not want to leave anything to chance after a 10-year drought in Haryana. The problem is figuring out whether a poll pact with AAP will enhance its winning chances or prove a damp squib.

Shadow of Islamic State

The National Investigation Agency (NIA), in its chargesheet on the Rameswaram blast case, has said that main accused Shazib and Taaha had attempted a failed IED attack on a BJP office in Bengaluru’s Malleshwaram area on January 22, the day of the prana prathistha (consecration ceremony) of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The two men from Shivamogga in Karnataka are radicalised Islamic State (IS) members and were absconding since the Al Hind module was busted in 2020. They were arrested from a hideout in West Bengal 42 days after the blast at the café that injured nine and caused considerable damage. The duo was actively involved in radicalising Muslim youth and three of their co-accused were inducted in this manner. They were guided by their handler, a Lashkar member on the run, and used a variety of Indian and Bangladeshi identity documents to hide their tracks. Committed to IS ideology, they wanted to go to areas in Syria controlled by the terror group but were unable to do so, possibly due to reversals suffered by IS and a shrinkage in territory under its control. They used cryptocurrency and Taaha converted the funds to legal tender using Telegram-based platforms. The case shows how IS managed to establish a hold over the minds of the youth in India even though the total number of active recruits who left to fight in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan is not very large. But, as the Rameswaram case demonstrates, IS seems to have had a better success rate in the south in states like Karnataka and Kerala.

Yogi on Top

While the election fever in states going to polls holds public attention, bypolls in many states will be keenly watched even if these are not so much in the news. The 10 Assembly seats where voting is due to be scheduled in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are a test for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath after BJP suffered a setback in the Lok Sabha elections. Adityanath is firmly in-charge of poll planning despite some rumbles after the Lok Sabha results. Insider has learnt that the BJP top leadership is not receptive to power games that aim to undercut Adityanath’s leadership. The view of those who matter is that the chief minister remains BJP’s best bet and despite the Lok Sabha setback has not lost his credibility with voters. It is felt his challengers lag him by a large margin and do not match the chief minister’s energy and dedication to politics. As a source put it, there is no No 2, 3 or 4 in the state BJP.

Arvind KejriwalAssembly elections 2024HaryanaJammu and KashmirNational PoliticsOmar AbdullahRahul GandhiYogi Adityanath