Over to Andhra Pradesh

THE DUST HAVING settled on the Telangana election with the ouster of the K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) clan from office, attention is shifting to neighbouring Andhra Pradesh where another regional party—just as in the case of BRS led by a former Congressman—has held office since May 2019. Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy left Congress after the party refused to accept his claim to succeed his father, the redoubtable YS Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR), who died in a chopper crash in September 2009. Jagan has been an enigmatic politician with a very private side to him. He was seen to be in the reckoning in the 2014 state election but lost to TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu, who benefitted from an alliance with BJP. Since state and Lok Sabha polls are held simultaneously in Andhra Pradesh, the Modi factor worked to TDP’s advantage as also the perception that the experienced Naidu would be a steady hand to lead the truncated state after the formation of Telangana. But five years later, Jagan swept Naidu out of office and struck a pragmatic relationship with the BJP government at the Centre. Since then Jagan’s YSRCP has been invincible, winning bypolls and local body elections on the back of extensive welfare programmes. Yet, some months ago, Naidu’s public meetings began to attract crowds, generating a frisson in the state’s political circles. Soon after, the TDP leader was arrested by the state police for alleged corruption in a skill development programme when he was chief minister. He was arrested on September 9 and got regular bail on November 20. Meanwhile, a former senior official of the private company that partnered the skill development programme denied any wrongdoing on Naidu’s part. The question doing the rounds is whether the YSRCP government had overreached and provided its principal rival with an issue that could garner him public sympathy. Naidu has held up well during his time in jail and TDP leaders took up his case strenuously in court and in the political arena. There are signs the party may get pally with BJP again. All of this could pose a fresh challenge to the chief minister who congratulated BJP for winning three state elections. He also congratulated Congress on winning in “neighbouring Telangana”.

Muizzu’s Problems

Maldives’ pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu received a jolt soon after assuming office with former President Abdulla Yameen saying he would leave the ruling party to set up his own outfit. Yameen’s grouse is not being given adequate importance. Muizzu needs a majority in the parliamentary election slated next year to back his legislative programmes. Instead of getting down to governance matters, Muizzu has prioritised the end of a small Indian military presence on the islands. He possibly feels it might be a useful issue in the parliamentary polls. So far, India has chosen not to react to the new leader’s statements beyond some template responses. But as Yameen’s moves show, politics in the archipelago can be slippery business and Muizzu has little to gain by making an adversary of India which remains Maldives’ most important economic partner. Playing the ‘China card’ might seem politically profitable but only in the short run as India has indicated that it doesn’t want the helicopters it has gifted Maldives to remain on the islands in case its military personnel leave.

On the Front Foot

The discussion on the Jammu and Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, 2023 and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill, 2023 in Lok Sabha on December 5 set the stage for some sharp exchanges. TMC veteran Saugata Roy got more than what he bargained for when he said BJP’s slogan ‘Ek Vidhan, ek Pradhan, ek Nishan (One constitution, One Prime Minister, One Symbol)’ was a “political slogan”. Union Home Minister Amit Shah promptly got up to say that the formulation was not a political slogan and should not be seen as such. His remark that age might have caught up with Roy was uncharacteristically cutting. Though Shah does not pass up an opportunity to make an unvarnished point, he is rarely personal. On this occasion he reminded Roy that BJP’s stand had been unchanged since 1950 and it was the Modi government that got rid of the anomaly regarding Jammu and Kashmir’s separate flag and constitution and made sure that all laws of the land applied to the state.

After Pannun

Media reports about the arrest of an Indian citizen in the alleged plot to assassinate US-based Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun sparked speculation whether the case might prove a hurdle in India-US ties. There is little doubt that the report on the Indian ‘link’ to the plot was leaked by US sources, with government spokespersons saying they took the allegations seriously. Yet, the White House spokesperson, the State Department and Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer, who was in Delhi this week, have all reiterated the importance of the strategic partnership with India. Finer said the two sides can work through differences without “derailing” the broader common agenda that includes building safe supply chains, technology cooperation and checking Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. India is unlikely to offer much comment beyond the inquiry announced into the alleged Pannun affair. India will, however, continue to emphasise that it is the responsibility of the US to act against Pannun who regularly issues threats against Indian diplomats and whose inflammatory words and actions are causing a problem for Indian officials visiting gurdwaras in the US and elsewhere.

Back in Ukraine

Since the horrific October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel and the Jewish state’s retaliation in Gaza, there are hardly any headlines on the war in Ukraine. But the war does go on, grinding and deadly, and extracting a heavy human toll. As the winter progresses, both sides are largely locked in a stalemate but the Russian military is reported to have lost over 200 tanks since the start of its offensive to capture a city called Avdiivka located at the centre of the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian casualties remain low and US sources quoted in think-tank reports say thousands of Russian troops have died around Avdiivka. As the action on the ground remains deadlocked, the two sides are testing each other’s defences by using a variety of military drones. Russians attacked Kyiv with about 75 Iran-designed drones, drawing a largescale Ukrainian counterattack. Ukrainians are using innovative ‘ground level’ drones that explode when Russian troops enter their impact radius and are also using a ‘backfire’ unmanned drone that consists of three planes, a ground-control station, launch system, spare parts, and other items. The drone is being hailed as the ‘hero’ of the battleground.

2024: CountdownAmit ShahAndhra PradeshAssembly Elections 2023Jagan Mohan ReddyVerdict 2023