Notes from a Red State

THIS IS NOT about any communist redoubt of ‘note’. Most communist states are a shadow of their former selves. Even that much vaunted communist lodestar, China, is suffering from a particularly ulcerous bout of political dyspepsia. The phrase ‘Red State’ here alludes to a psephological euphemism for North Carolina, a picturesque coastal state in America’s southeast that this correspondent happens to be visiting.

For the uninitiated, Red States in the US are those considered Republican Party strongholds. In 2024, in the run-up to one of the most consequential presidential elections, North Carolina turned an even more ruddy shade of red. Trump, then contender-in-chief, was quick to acknowledge it as the geographical and ideological heartbeat of the roiling MAGA movement.

Unfortunately for Trump, a little over six months after he became the 47th president of the US, North Carolinian hearts are no longer skipping a beat for him.

The ROMEOs (Retired Old Men Eating Out) epitomise this creeping disenchantment. The ROMEOs are a small troupe of MAGA enthusiasts who live in North Carolina’s Wilmington—a historical city that was in the years of the great American Civil War the South’s second-most important metropolis. These military veterans who espouse different shades of conservative thought voted for Trump because they were mainly swayed by his muscular America First message. They were willing to overlook his sexual peccadilloes, his mendacity and even his narcissistic “jack ass” behaviour so long as Trump delivered on walling off America from illegal immigration, bringing back American jobs and reining in prices.

But at their customary Monday morning breakfast do (that this correspondent was invited to), more than one ROMEO moaned about Trump’s missteps: The ‘cosmetic’ crackdown on illegal immigration, ‘stubbornly’ high inflation and the ‘phoney talk’ about jobs. But above all, it is the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ that the president has signed into law that is causing them most anxiety. Why? Because as one ROMEO pointed out, the law would cost the state billions of dollars while virtually gutting Medicaid benefits for more than 600,000 people.

In fact, North Carolina’s senior Republican Senator Thom Tillis tried to persuade Trump and his own North Carolina GOP leaders that the One Big Beautiful Bill would devastate healthcare in the state. But Trump jumped on Truth Social dissing the senator, saying, “Thom Tillis is making a BIG MISTAKE for America and the Wonderful People of North Carolina.” The next day, Tillis announced that he won’t seek re-election in 2026. If Tillis’ replacement doesn’t deliver, Republicans could lose control over the Senate, virtually hobbling Trump’s administration.

Florida is another big Red State that is preparing to reckon with Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill for the same reasons. The new law has even caused one-time confidant and bankroller Elon Musk to dump Trump.

Make no mistake. Heartburn in Trump’s MAGA base holds consequences for India and the world. It stands to reason that egotistic Trump, unable to reconcile with falling approval ratings delivered by disaffected loyalists, could turn to an even more populist brand of geoplay, further straining global partnerships. For countries like India, this may mean stricter immigration rules, stalled H-1B reforms and an unreasonably uppity attitude towards ongoing trade tariff negotiations. The signs are already visible. The Trump White House has threatened to target pharmaceutical and IT services’ ties with ‘partner countries’ unwilling to play by his tariff rules.

Beyond geonomics, MAGA malcontents could also drive Trump to double down on isolationism, impacting geopolitics. The murmurs of dissent in the MAGA base picked up firsthand by this correspondent are not a local lament. They are the first rallying cries calling for a mega reset. How will Trump respond? The world awaits.

Donald Trumpglobal partnershipsH-1BimmigrationisolationismMAGATrade Tariffs