Netanyahu’s Dilemma

ON THE LAST day of July, I was in the rain-soaked streets of Mumbai, relishing the monsoon, when I received a congratulatory message from an Indian friend. I was puzzled at first, unsure of what he was referring to. A quick glance at an Israeli news portal cleared up the mystery: Ismail Haniyeh, one of Hamas’ leaders, had been killed while visiting Iran. It felt strange to receive congratulations on someone’s death, but when that someone is one of the most wanted Hamas terrorists, and a key architect of the October 7, 2023 massacre, there is a certain relief in knowing that such a monster will no longer be around.

Haniyeh’s death provoked a swift and heated response from Iran. “Israel must be punished,” declared Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, his voice echoing the nation’s wound­ed pride. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, during his visit to attend the inauguration of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, was a significant blow. Typically, Iran relies on its proxies to strike at Israel, but this incident hit too close to home. In April, Iran had launched a direct attack on Israel, though it was largely unsuccessful. However, following the Haniyeh incident, Khamenei vowed a more severe retali­ation, one that would truly inflict pain. Israel heightened its vigilance. We have been on high alert for the past 10 months, but this time Khamenei promised a “super show” of Iran’s capabili­ties, signalling something far more formidable. Many airlines cancelled their flights to Israel while Israelis stocked up on water and food, filling their secure rooms and shelters. Supermarket shelves were emptied and the Israeli stock market took a hit. Three weeks have now passed, and Iran is still “planning its punishment”. The term ‘punishment’ almost makes it feel like we are children being punished for some misdeed. In Iran’s eyes, Israel’s very existence is the offence. But a direct attack on Israel is not in anyone’s interest; it could ignite a regional war. Iran likely realises that continuing to use its proxies will achieve the same objectives without the same risks.

WHILE HAMAS, THE southern proxy (south of Israel), is losing its strength, Hezbollah, the northern proxy, has been operating at full force. On a Saturday afternoon (July 27), a rocket made in Iran and loaded with 50kg of explosives struck a football field in the Druze village of Majdal Shams. The rocket claimed the lives of 12 children and injured another 40 and made headlines across the world. No alarm had sounded, as the time between the rocket’s launch and its impact was a mere 20 seconds, leaving the Iron Dome unable to intercept it. Majdal Shams, a Druze village, is situated in the Golan Heights, at Israel’s northernmost point, just a few metres from the Syrian border.

Hezbollah likely did not intentionally target the football field, but like their counterparts in Hamas, their weaponry is often imprecise. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, instead pointing fingers at Israel. They quickly realised that striking a Druze village was a huge mistake. This at­tack placed Hezbollah in a precarious position as the Druze community in Lebanon viewed it as an assault on their own families. This led to significant outrage against Hezbollah within Lebanon itself.

The Druze community follows a secretive religion that emerged from Islam and reveres the prophet Shuayb. With a global population of just one million, the Druze community is small, Arabic-speaking, and primarily found in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. In Israel, there are about 150,000 Druze, most of whom are citizens, although a small number have opted to remain permanent residents rather than accept citizenship. The Druze community’s guiding principle is loyalty to the country they reside in. In Israel, this means that most Druze citizens enlist in the army at 18 just like their peers. Many go on to get promo­tions to high ranks and serve in elite combat units. On that tragic Saturday, all of Israel mourned the loss of the children and stood in solidarity with the Druze community.

The reporting of this story by many global media outlets was biased. The Washington Post, for example, featured a front-page photo of grieving parents alongside images of their deceased children. The headline read, ‘Israel Attacks in Lebanon’, which could easily mislead readers into believing that Israel was responsible for the deaths. In reality, Israel had targeted a Hezbollah base in Lebanon that had launched the rocket that hit the children. Other publications emphasised that the Golan Heights is considered occupied territory, suggesting that this somehow justifies Hezbollah’s attack on innocent children.

The Golan Heights is a region in northern Israel bordering Syria. It was Syrian territory before the 1967 war in which Israel occupied it. A war that was initiated by Syria and its allies. Although the United Nations considers Israel’s control of the area illegal, in 2019, under the Trump administration, the US officially recognised the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

THE BIG WAIT is not for Iran to act. It is over 320 days since October 7 and still 109 hostages remain in Hamas’ captivity. Half of them are still alive. This week, we saw the evacuation of six bodies, most of them elderly individuals of about 80 who were kidnapped and then murdered in captivity. Among the deceased was Abraham Mundar, 79, who was abducted from his home in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7, along with his wife, daughter and grandson. His son was killed that day. While his wife, daughter and grandson were released in an earlier hostage exchange, Mundar had remained captive and is now believed to have been murdered by Hamas a few months ago.

I followed his story closely; his niece, a childhood friend of mine, is a leader in the Hostage Families organ­isation advocating for their release. Mundar was known for his role as a singer in the Kibbutz choir and his work at the Kibbutz’s paint company. Signs displayed in the streets of Israel featured Mundar’s photograph with the slogan: ‘What if it were your grandfather?’ It was aimed at Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. As I write, negotiations are underway to reach an agreement with Hamas and secure the release of the remaining hostages. Polls in Israel indicate that 63 per cent of the population supports the hostage release agreement while only 12 per cent opposes it. The terms are difficult for many to accept since it not only includes a ceasefire and the release of hostages but also demands the release of some of the most dangerous terrorists and Hamas regaining power in Gaza. Netanyahu’s far-right allies oppose the agreement, even if their objections mean prolonging the hostages’ suffering. Netanyahu faces a significant dilemma—his political survival versus the lives of the hostages. Without the support of his allies, Netanyahu’s government will collapse. But without securing the return of the hostages, he lacks the moral authority to continue as prime minister.

Ali KhameneiBenjamin NetanyahuconflictsgeopoliticsIsrael-Iran