Muslim First

KANISHKA SINGH WAS for a while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s right-hand man. I phoned him some years ago with a request. Would Rahul speak to an audience of journalists, academics and students in Mumbai?

Kanishka was excited at the prospect. He became even more animated when I told him the audience would be inclusive (code for Muslims and Christians). “That’s exactly the demographic we like,” he said, enthusiastically.

In the end, the event didn’t work out but it got me thinking. Why has Rahul pivoted so decisively towards minorities over the past decade?

When he entered politics in 2004 at the age of 34 by winning the family seat of Amethi, Rahul was fairly religion-agnostic. The decisive swing towards capturing a Muslim vote bank hadn’t yet begun. Congress returned to power in 2009 with 206 seats, its highest tally since the 1991 Lok Sabha polls following Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination.

The rise of Narendra Modi in Gujarat was barely visible to most. Only Sonia Gandhi had noted the future threat he posed to Congress’ political hegemony. But it wasn’t till 2012, after Modi had won his third consecu­tive election as Gujarat chief minister, that Rahul swivelled towards a Muslim-first political template. The Gandhis realised after Congress’ shock 44-seat defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha election that the Muslim vote was its lifeline for climbing back to power.

Since then, Congress has relentlessly positioned itself as a Muslim-first party. Its vote share in the last three Lok Sabha elections shows why. Muslims are officially 15 per cent of India’s population. But in several dozen parliamentary seats in Kerala, Uttar Pradesh (UP) and West Bengal, they comprise over 40 per cent of the electorate.

If Congress won even two-thirds of the total Muslim vote, that amounted to around 10 per cent, even if the official Census 2011 figure of 15 per cent Muslims in the population is taken at face value. Without that 10 per cent Muslim vote, the Congress vote share in 2024 would have halved from the 21.19 per cent it received

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Examine Congress’ vote share in the last three General Elections. In 2014, it won 19.31 per cent vote share; in 2019, 19.66 per cent; and in 2024, 21.19 per cent. Its average nation­al vote share mathematically across these three Lok Sabha elections was 20.05 per cent. Within that vote share, a large majority came from the minorities. The only leakage of Muslim votes to BJP was among Muslim women happy with the NDA government’s welfare benefits. A section of the overall Muslim vote went to regional allies as well. But the majority of India’s Muslims voted as a bloc for Congress to stop BJP.

If Congress won even two-thirds of the total Muslim vote, that amounted to around 10 per cent, even if the official Census 2011 figure of 15 per cent Muslims in the population is taken at face value. Without that 10 per cent Muslim vote, the Congress vote share in 2024 would have halved from the 21.19 per cent it received. The effect on the number of seats would have been devastating.

Would 99 seats have regressed to below 40 seats without the Muslim bloc vote? Difficult to say. But Rahul took no chances. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, sensing defeat in Amethi, he took the precaution of contesting from a second seat, Wayanad, which has a Muslim and Christian population of over 50 per cent.

There are other pointers that show how decisively Congress has trans­formed itself since the Indira-Rajiv era into a Muslim-first party. Rahul ordered Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge to give Himachal Pradesh state cabinet minister Vikramaditya Singh a dressing down for daring to support UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s order on disclosing names of eatery owners and staff. The order was aimed at segregating meat-serving, Muslim-owned eateries.

The Congress position on the Waqf Land Bill has pleased the regressive All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB). In Kashmir, Rahul has blamed the government-appointed administration for a spike in terrorism incidents. While the surge in terror-related attacks in the last few months was linked to the J&K Assembly election, incidents of terrorism have in fact fallen by over 90 per cent between 2014 and 2024. According to official figures, there were 23 terrorism-related incidents in the first nine months of 2024 compared to 222 terrorism incidents in 2014.

When a political party relies on one section of the pop­ulation for half its parliamentary seats, it does itself long-term political and social harm. Barely half of India’s Hindus vote for BJP and its allies. But nearly all Muslims vote for Congress and its allies.

Rajiv was religion-neutral. He balanced Shah Bano with shilanyas. Would Rahul do the same today in Kashi? His Muslim vote bank wouldn’t allow it.

About The Author

Minhaz Merchant

Minhaz Merchant is an author, editor and publisher

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