MAGA Versus GOP

As US President Donald Trump pulled out of the G7 summit early, reportedly heading back home for a meeting of the National Security Council, the ‘madman theory’ of foreign policy—to explain his unpredictability—took hold again. Trump had by then wholeheartedly backed Israel’s strikes on Iran, then distanced his administration, and then returned to vocal endorsement again. Even as the US helped Israel defend itself against Iranian missiles evading the Iron Dome, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted the US’ bunker busters that alone could take out a subterranean nuclear enrichment facility like Fordo. Congressional Republicans and the GOP’s old establishment had been advocating that Washington escalate and help finish the regime in Tehran. Trump was caught between them and his ‘America First’ MAGA base which wanted him to pull back. Tucker Carlson, in fact, asked him to “drop Israel”. Yet, Trump was leaning towards the old guard at the time of writing, having asked Iran to surrender unconditionally and telling the Ayatollah he was not safe. His “I may do it, I may not” ultimately split MAGA itself, but the Nobel Peace Prize is unlikley to end up in the White House anytime soon.

The Haifa Connection

In September 1918, Indian soldiers had liberated the port city of Haifa in northern Palestine from Ottoman forces and their German allies. The Battle of Haifa was commemorated when New Delhi’s Teen Murti Chowk was renamed Teen Murti Haifa Chowk during Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2018 visit. In 2023, the Adani Group acquired the port of Haifa which became a
strategic node for India’s IMEC corridor. When Iranian missiles landed on Haifa and damaged the Bazan oil refinery and shut its operations temporarily, concerns were raised about the damage to the port and the future of this big Indian investment in a conflict zone. But the group denied that there was any damage, with CFO Jugeshinder ‘Robbie’ Singh calling such claims “false”. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd and Israel’s Gadot Group had made a 70-30 per cent acquisition of Haifa’s port by winning a government tender in 2022. The port handles about 20 million tonnes of cargo annually and as Israel’s busiest, it is important to global supply chains. While Haifa reportedly doesn’t contribute more than 5 per cent of Adani Ports’ revenue, it is a deep-water port and 30 per cent of Israel’s maritime trade is processed by it.

Tehran Divided

At 86, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei doesn’t have any good options. His legacy is demolished, notwithstanding the damage in Israel. The regime may not be toppled yet. But it could be a byproduct. Nobody volunteers to fight for an oppressor and Iranians have been venting, at the cost of jail time, on social media, saying it’s the regime’s war, not theirs. With Tehran’s regional proxies decimated, its Syrian ally fallen, its top scientists gone and the Revolutionary Guards humiliated, a scared people are showing their anger. Mossad’s penetration of Iranian security and its use of local agents is evidence of Iranians’ hatred for the regime.

Ayatollah Ali KhameneiDonald TrumpTehranTucker CarlsonUS politics