Just Looking Like a Wow
BILLIONAIRE KUMAR MANGALAM BIRLA is not a man given to making extravagant statements. But writing his annual corporate note on the Indian economy, he declared last month: "It's just looking like a wow!"
The phrase is popular with GenZ and millennials but not many in the 56-year-old Birla's business circle are familiar with what started as a sales pitch on social media by designer Jasmeen Kaur for outfits she loved.
The meme soon became an internet sensation. The phrase "Just looking like a wow" was used in reels and shorts to describe everything from favourite outfits and movie scenes to hit songs and friends' everyday activities.
So, how does it apply to the economy? Kumar Mangalam Birla believes it does in sublime ways. A serious and slightly introverted business leader (his net worth is $20 billion), Birla thinks the Indian economy is in a sweet spot.
When I first met Birla in May 1996, he was 28 years old. He had lost his father Aditya Vikram just months ago to a serious illness. Thrown in at the deep end of what was then India's second-largest business empire, Birla was composed but realistic about the challenges he and his companies faced.
Over the next year, I worked on a biography of Aditya Vikram Birla, possibly India's first truly global business leader who, though he was based in India, began his career by launching companies in Thailand and other parts of Southeast Asia. Aditya Birla, too, was a man of few words.
So, what did his son, Kumar Mangalam, mean when he wrote that the Indian economy was "just looking like a wow"? Here's what he said: "This is the dynamism and energy of a young country and an ancient civilisation that has found its voice and footing. There is a palpable sense that the country is on the move. India is awash with optimism, pride, and anticipation. This anticipation stems from our country's accelerated high-growth trajectory."
So, is the Indian economy looking like a wow? On balance, it is. GDP in 2023-24 is likely to rise by 7.3 per cent, surpassing estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This at a time when Germany and Britain have both slipped into recession.
The British GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent in the October-December 2023 quarter after contracting 0.1 per cent in the July-September 2023 quarter. Two successive quarters of economic contraction is the official definition of a recession.
China's economic slowdown meanwhile could deepen this year. The real estate sector, which accounts for nearly 30 per cent of China's GDP, has shrunk by 9.5 per cent in the past 12 months. China's total trade in 2023 fell by 5 per cent for the first time in decades, indicating a structural weakness in the economy.
The US remains an outlier. Its robust economy is estimated to grow 2.5 per cent in 2023-24. Inflation has moderated to 3.4 per cent and the unemployment rate is down to 3.7 per cent.
In India, as Birla pointed out, inflation is under control too, dipping to 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The unemployment rate has started falling with jobs being created in infrastructure and related sectors.
It is in fact infrastructure where expectations of higher economic growth lie. The 2024-25 Union Budget has targeted capital expenditure of `11.11 lakh crore. This capex, allied with private sector capital expenditure, which is gradually picking up, can drive up the trajectory of economic growth. As Arvind Panagariya, the newly appointed chairman of the Sixteenth Finance Commission pointed out, India's potential annual growth rate is 10 per cent.
Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari meanwhile pledged at a recent summit that the total network of Indian roads and highways would, by the end of 2024, equal the total network of roads and highways in the US.
In his annual corporate note, Kumar Mangalam Birla concluded: "The Instagram reel 'just looking like a wow' echoed the vibrant energy of the Indian economy. In the arc of a nation's progress there comes a moment when you feel a certain pulse. A deeply impactful one—the pulse of a nation's confidence. Perhaps it's time to imagine an index that captures the collective confidence of a nation. Maybe call it the National Confidence Index."
A National Confidence Index (NCI)? India has many indices that track nutrition, education and GDP. An NCI may well be an idea whose time has come.