Jaishankar on Gaza

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks on the war in Gaza at the Munich Security Conference caught foreign policy pundits off guard when he said Israel should have been mindful of the humanitarian cost of its campaign against Hamas. It once again showed the perils of taking Indian foreign policy for granted or thinking that positions will not evolve. The reference to the humanitarian cost in Gaza, the need to consider the two-state solution, and the creation of a humanitarian safe corridor reflect important aspects of India’s thinking with regard to the embattled region and the wider West Asian landscape. For one, it is a pointer to India’s ties with the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia and is a consideration of their views on the conflict. Though few regimes in the region have any sympathy for Hamas, they are conscious of the street sentiment over civilian casualties in Gaza and the need to prevent an escalation of the war. India has also signalled that Israel must move towards finding a path to a ceasefire and a halt to armed operations. There is a view, which has its adherents in Israel as well, that the nation’s leadership has not handled the issue of the return of the hostages well. Reports that many of those still unaccounted for could be dead have fuelled concern and anger. It is felt that the Israeli government needs to ensure their safe return, and that the ground operations and air bombardment have perhaps reached a point where they may not yield the anticipated gains. The Indian position does not disregard the need to address Israel’s security concerns and Jaishankar was categorical in stating that there could not be any ifs and buts about the October 7 attack on Israel. The slaughter of civilians and kidnappings by Hamas were an act of terrorism. However, Jaishankar chose to emphasise the human costs of the war and later met Palestinian Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad al-Maliki.

Kamal Nath’s Moves

Conflicting reports about the plans of Congress leader and former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath are not subsiding even as his son Nakul revealed he is in touch with former members of the party who have joined BJP. Now, it remains to be seen if the Naths make the switch as well. Meanwhile, reports of their departure have further demoralised Congress in Madhya Pradesh after BJP won the Assembly election convincingly. Congress in the state is in disarray with no signs of new leaders being promoted in lieu of the old guard that has clearly run out of steam. The unrest is evident in other states as well. In Jharkhand, Congress MLAs who were not selected as ministers in the new Champai Soren government are sulking. The intemperate comments of Congress leaders in Karnataka, speaking in divisive language, have barely resulted in a reprimand. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra will soon complete its
Uttar Pradesh (UP) leg, but it has already lost much of its salience in the wake of bickering in Congress and exits in the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

Panagariya Is Back

Eminent economist and the first vice chairman of NITI Aayog, Arvind Panagariya, has taken charge of the Sixteenth Finance Commission. He had left NITI Aayog to return to teaching at Cornell University. But he remained in touch with India, visiting often and meeting people in government. The open mandate he has been given as per the terms of reference is seen as a reflection of the trust the government has placed in him to work out the fiscal balance and sharing of revenues between the Centre and states. The subject has become fraught in the light of protests by the Karnataka and Kerala governments over the alleged denial of finances but the view in government is that the commission will be able to take up matters in a less heated setting once the Lok Sabha polls are over. The commission will then get down to the hard facts of revenue and taxation and consider funds needed for welfare and infrastructure programmes executed by the Centre. Incentives for states to reform urban governance in order to tap Central funds for infrastructure are another important area for the commission as it gets down to business after its first meeting.

Bihar Plans

After frenetic developments that saw JD(U) returning to the NDA fold, things are settling down in Bihar. JD(U) leader and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar came to Delhi and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and BJP President JP Nadda. The party has since named its Rajya Sabha nominee as well. BJP and JD(U) will contest the Lok Sabha polls as allies and, if NDA retains power at the Centre, the regional party will nominate its ministerial representative in the Union government. BJP has had to assuage other elements of its alliance in Bihar who are not on good terms with JD(U). But the saffron party has argued that some adjustments are needed to ensure the larger goal of BJP and NDA winning a majority in Lok Sabha.

Fencing Myanmar Border

Not unexpectedly, new Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma has opposed the Centre’s plans to fence the border with Myanmar. The leader, who heads the Zoram People’s Movement, is addressing local sentiment over shared ethnicity on either side of the border. The problem is that the current free movement regime facilitates the movement of unsavoury elements along with locals. The porous border is exploited for gun-running as well as the drug trade. The state government may have a view but the decision on fencing the border is within the domain of the Centre. A reluctant state can, of course, pose hurdles, but the Centre is expected to keep pressing Lalduhoma to accept the fencing which in any case will roll out only after the Lok Sabha election is over. The decision to shut down the free movement on the border acquired greater urgency after recent events in Myanmar where rebels have seized control of border villages, triggering a fresh wave of refugees.

Cost of Russian Gains

The war in Ukraine again caught global attention after the fall of the city of Avdiivka to Russian forces. The retreat from the city is a setback to Ukrainian forces but Russia has paid a heavy price by way of men and material. Russian forces have ground on, seeking to leverage force-on-force ratios and Vladimir Putin has declared that the war is linked to Russia’s existence. The remarks are intended to fire up domestic opinion and warn world leaders that he will press on in his war against Ukraine. Russia has the advantage of a bigger reserve pool and is putting ammunition received from Iran and North Korea to good use. Ukrainian defences in the south are holding but the gains in Avdiivka would mean that Russia will further its objectives in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas even though it has lost 10 per cent of tanks deployed in the operation.

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