Great Power Envy

NO ONE LIKES a rising new power. Not the US. Not China. Not Europe. It upsets the status quo, the balance of power.

When China rose to Great Power status, it was viewed as a threat by the existing Great Powers of the West. It took decades for the West to come to terms with China’s rise as an economic and technological superpower.

The US-led West’s reaction to India’s ascent is more complex. China was seen as a direct threat to Western global hegemony. India’s rise is not.

But farsighted thinkers in Washington know that in 20 years, India too will develop into an economic, military and technological rival to the West.

It is instructive to see how legacy Great Powers deal with rising powers. Till the 1960s, the Soviet Union was America’s principal Great Power rival. Washington used a twin strategy to degrade it. First, it befriended China in 1972 following President Richard Nixon’s visit to Beijing along with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. The objective was to drive a wedge between the two communist giants, China and the Soviet Union, which shared a disputed and volatile 4,200-km border.

China’s ruthless leader Mao Zedong knew exactly what Washington’s objective was but played along. In return for the establishment of US-China diplomatic relations in 1979, the US gave Chinese scientists and academics unfettered access to US technology.

For the next 30 years, China used this access to steal classified US technology and reverse-engineered it. Reformist leader Deng Xiaoping told his country to “hide your strength and bide your time.”

That time arrived in the 2010s. To America’s shock, China’s GDP had shot up 20 times from $0.30 trillion in 1980 to $6.10 trillion in 2010. In comparison, US GDP had risen just five times from $2.86 trillion in 1980 to $15.05 trillion in 2010.

India poses no immediate threat to the Western world order. But as US leaders know, it will in 20 years. That is why during India’s conflict with Pakistan, the US tried to draw an equivalence between the two. For the US, just as India is useful as a counter to China’s rise, Pakistan is useful as a counter to keep India’s rise under watch

Meanwhile, the US used the second strand of its twin strategy to neutralise the threat of Russia after the end of the Cold War in 1991. It expanded NATO, taking it to Russia’s doorstep. In 1991, NATO had 16 members. In 2025, it has 32 members. Russia has been effectively encircled.

China though remains a growing threat to the West’s legacy Great Powers. US President Donald Trump was forced to step back in his trade war with Beijing, reducing import duties on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent.

India poses no immediate threat to the Western

world order. But as thoughtful US leaders know, it will in 20 years. That is why during India’s recent conflict with Pakistan, Washington tried to draw an equivalence between India and Pakistan, a known state sponsor of terrorism. For Washington, just as India is useful as a counter to China’s rise, Pakistan is useful as a counter to keep India’s rise under watch.

In 2025, India will overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy. In 2027, it will overtake Germany as the world’s third-largest economy. Ahead, by a long distance, will remain China and the US, but both growing at half of India’s annual GDP rate.

Long distances can narrow quickly as China showed over the last 20 years. Will India do likewise over the next 20 years? It’s impossible to make long-term projections but there is little doubt that India will significantly reduce the economic gap with both the US and China. India’s decisive military victory against Pakistan and its advanced Chinese and Turkish weaponry has been noticed by defence analysts globally.

With Russia defanged, what worries Washington the most now is an Asian resurgence of China and India. The combined GDP of China and India in 2035 is projected, for the first time in modern history, to exceed US GDP.

A defining characteristic of a Great Power is the ability and intent to use decisive, overwhelming military force when its national interest is threatened. Legacy Great Powers have done so through history without hesitation and without requiring international approval. In Operation Sindoor India did so for the first time this century.

India’s action against Pakistan has triggered both envy and realism among legacy Great Powers. Envy because India’s economic rise is now accompanied by a demonstration of its intent and ability to use decisive military force against a nuclear power. Realism because it reorders the balance of global power.

geopoliticalIndia-US relationsIndian economymilitary powerOperation SindoorWestern countries