Congress’ Balancing Act

Congress fancies its prospects in the Haryana Assembly election after the Lok Sabha results saw it gain five of the state’s 10 seats. The surliness of the Jat community over BJP’s decision not to appoint a chief minister from its ranks and a drift of Dalit votes give Congress much to hope for. As it settles its list of candidates, the party is again faced with the unending tussles between former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and party leaders Randeep Surjewala and Selja Kumari, with the latter interested in contesting the Assembly polls. The Congress high command needs to tread with care since, though Hooda is the more acceptable leader and has indeed delivered results, his rivals cannot be brushed aside. Selja is a prominent Dalit leader and is seen as close to 10 Janpath. Surjewala has been a loyal Rahul Gandhi aide. Both are MPs and Selja has further embellished her credentials by winning the Lok Sabha election from Sirsa. The last time round, infighting over seat selection cost Congress a crucial two-three seats allowing BJP to cross the 40 mark in the 90-member Assembly. BJP formed the government with the support of independents and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Congress managers will be wary of committing similar errors by selecting candidates on the basis of factional claims rather than winnability. Since Dalits are an important part of Congress’ calculations, outright ignoring of Selja’s claim can prove costly. The party functionaries are therefore trying their best to speak to her and figure a way out. Matters were not helped by party state in-charge Deepak Babaria saying the broad thinking is that no one will be given permission to contest, referring to claims of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs. It is very unlikely that either Selja or Surjewala will accept this diktat meekly and give up on their ambition of being contenders for the chief minister’s post.

BJP’s Urban Mission

BJP won five seats in Harayana—or to put it another way, did not slip further—due to the support of urban voters who turned out in significant numbers in key segments. With urban seats seen to be more receptive to BJP, there is quite a tussle among party leaders to get the nomination for seemingly safer seats. Badshahpur in Gurugram is one such seat where former minister Rao Narbir Singh has thrown in his hat. Singh was denied a ticket in 2019, a decision that did cost BJP. This time round he is certain of wresting the nomination for the urban seat that comprises parts of new Gurugram as well as large urbanised villages which have a strong presence of the Yadav community which Singh hails from. BJP is working to ensure a large urban turnout as it feels urban dwellers continue to prefer the party to Congress which was in office from 2004-14 and its tenure was marked by graft and regional politics. BJP’s hurdle is the poor state of civic administration in most cities highlighted by inadequacies that surfaced during the monsoon. Though corruption in recruitments—again a hallmark of past governments—has been significantly curbed, the inefficiency of the officialdom and municipal corporations have generated a lot of discontent among voters. It is quite a task for BJP to convince urban voters that it will address the shortcomings if voted for a third term. Keeping this in view, BJP local leaders have been busy organising colony and area meetings, inviting residents for tea and some informal discussions on local matters.

Azad’s Entry

The advent of Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad in the Haryana election as a partner of JJP led by Dushyant and Ajay Chauthala is an interesting development as it gives the Dalit outfit a foothold outside Uttar Pradesh (UP) where it has had a limited presence. Azad’s victory from the Nagina Lok Sabha seat was a breakthrough for the leader who fared poorly in the 2022 UP elections. The prospects of the JJP-Aazad Samaj Party (ASP) are not easy to gauge as the anger in the Jat community over JJP’s previous alliance with BJP is running high. Also, the Dalit vote, if it seeks options other than BJP, may well consider Congress rather than the alliance. Yet, the poll stage gives Azad a popular pulpit in a high-stakes election and he comes across as a competitor to Mayawati’s BSP which is in alliance with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), the party JJP broke away from. Mayawati’s stock has been low since the Lok Sabha results, with the rival social justice platform of SP-Congress emerging the top performer in UP. BSP’s decision to go it alone and keep away from opposition alliances led to despair among her Dalit base and saw a section of her loyal Jatav vote desert her. Will Azad make a mark in Haryana? Irrespective of ASP’s final score, attendance at and response to his rallies will be keenly watched.

Dubey’s Gambit

BJP MP from Godda, Nishikant Dubey, has a way of staying in the news. He was the principal force behind disclosures that led to TMC MP Mahua Moitra losing her membership from the 17th Lok Sabha. More recently, he kicked up a small political storm by calling for parts of Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar to be declared a Union territory to check infiltration from Bangladesh. BJP’s rival JMM protested the statement while BJP distanced itself from Dubey’s demand, voiced in Lok Sabha. Dubey, however, is not exactly repentant and insists the startling remarks drew attention to a serious problem. The infiltration problem is only likely to grow in view of the troubled situation in Bangladesh which is directly impacting livelihoods. He says the issue has major electoral ramifications as demographics of certain areas are changing and believes the concern over illegals resonates strongly with voters, including Adivasis who are at risk of losing land to outsiders, not just illegal migrants from Bangladesh but also Rohingya people from Myanmar.

A Message For Tamil Nadu

The Lok Sabha elections are over, and it is back to business with the Centre looking to enforce guidelines for funding its programmes. The Centre has made it clear that Tamil Nadu will have to accept the implementation of the National Education Policy (NEP) if it wants to access funds for schemes like PM SHRI Schools that will follow the NEP syllabus. DMK leaders accuse the Centre of discrimination but it is the case of he who pays the piper calling the tune. Tamil Nadu is the one state that does not offer Hindi even as an additional or optional subject in state-run schools.

Assembly elections 2024Chandrashekhar AzadHaryanaIndian politicsNishikant Dubey