Bangladesh: An Enemy or a Friend

ONE OF THE MORE challenging facets of national existence is that the country has to be prepared for battles on multiple fronts. This does not necessarily imply actual armed conflict, such as the four-day Operation Sindoor hostilities with neighbour Pakistan. There are the unresolved border tensions with China, demarcation disputes with whoever is controlling parts of the India-Myanmar border and the policing of the unnatural and porous national borders with Bangladesh. Finally, there are the challenges the Indian Navy faces in keeping the international waters safe for commercial shipping.

I stress the multiple challenges that India has to negotiate because a natural preoccupation with the old enemy in the west could ensure that the establishment takes its eye off the ball in the east. Recently, a colleague in a think-tank with a healthy interest and deep knowledge in the bewildering complexities of insurgent groups in Myanmar complained to me that India’s strategic community seemed to have only a superficial understanding of this eastern neighbour. This is troubling because the understanding in Myanmar, in government, civil society and the insurgent groups, is that India is a big player in the civil war. I think there is every reason to believe that over the years our military intelligence and our external intelligence agency RAW have developed their own understanding of what is happening in Myanmar. However, unless this is complemented by a more detached understanding in the universities and think-tanks, our policy approaches could become potentially skewed. For example, there is an urgent need for some of our elite universities and institutions to acquire and disseminate knowledge of the languages and literature of Myanmar. We must learn from the imperial outlook that nurtured the British Empire in its prime. The Americans acquired this imperial outlook in academia, although I fear we may well be seeing its eclipse under President Donald Trump.

A sensitive and rounded understanding of our neighbourhood is imperative if our national interests are to be meaningfully pursued. Assume, for the sake of argument, that India wishes to nurture a presence in the Balochistan province of Pakistan. It would be imperative to first develop a cadre of people—in government and outside—who can follow in the footsteps of the erstwhile Indian Political Service. These civil servants, some of whom were nothing but spies, developed a deep understanding of everything connected with the different Baloch tribes. Can we honestly say that we have maintained this rich inheritance? To what extent have we utilised the large Afghan diaspora in Delhi to develop our capacities in Afghanistan?

The importance of acquiring an imperial mindset becomes paramount in the context of recent developments in Bangladesh. It would be fair to say that following Sheikh Hasina’s hurried departure from that country on August 5, 2024, the successor interim government of Muhammad Yunus unleashed a tidal wave of anti-India sentiment. Some of this was inevitable because the Awami League government was perceived (quite erroneously, I may add) to be a puppet of India. However, it has assumed bizarre dimensions and has got intertwined with the hatred of Hindus that is being spread by the rejuvenated Islamists. The bid to erase the legacy of the 1971 liberation has also become coupled with the hatred for India.

Whatever may be the causes of this new ugliness, it is important to note a few things. First, that the dislike of India is mixed with a sense of awe at India’s recent development. It’s a variation of the Yankee-go-home-but-take-me-with-you syndrome. Second, there are important social and professional groups whose well-being in Bangladesh is linked to India. This includes business groups that see India as both a market and an investment hub. Regardless of what these groups thought of the Hasina regime, they are completely shattered by the post-August earthquake.

For the moment, India has taken a conscious decision to turn its back on Bangladesh. This may centre on the belief that it is best to show Bangladesh that India has many other options to explore, and that Dhaka would be advised to consider the costs of its insolence. The problem is that the withdrawal lacks subtlety and may well lead to India losing its links with civil society and the political class of Bangladesh. It does not pay to react in rage.

India has to claw its way back to the centre of Bangladesh life. This necessitates an approach that is different from the way we normally approach friends or outright enemies. Bangladesh is a bit of both, which is why this challenge should present Indian statecraft with a unique opportunity.

BangladeshIndia's neighboursMyanmarNortheast India